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四十定律

最近股市多了一些SAAS、IAAS或PAAS公司，他们大多有高速的销售增长，但盈利欠奉，甚至转亏为盈的日子遥遥无期。贴钱买销售的企业策略，当然不能持久，如何分辨这些公司的优劣？以前互联网时代投资者看 burn rate, 只能用作估计现金能持续多久；近几年风头公司有一个「四十定律」的方法，综合分析公司的增长和盈利能力。

四十定律（R40）适用于中小型软件公司，将公司的增长率加上盈利比率，若超过四十是好公司，低于四十是问题公司。增长率通常是用年度销售增长，盈利比率则各家不同，但不少人使用EBITDA margin。根据R40的原创人Richard Feld 的解释，如果销售增长仅有20%，公司盈利水平应有20% EBITDA margin，即使R40 = 20 + 20 = 40；假如有50%增速，EBITDA margin 可以是 -10%，R40 = 50 – 10 = 40。理念非常简单，假如公司增长很快，它可以暂时不盈利，假若增长放缓，则必须交出盈利成绩。

包子敬，鹏盛资产研究部主管

由日本机械工具需求看全球制造业的景气复苏

日本是工业机械生产大国，它的机械生产数据颇具参考性。日本工作机械协会昨天公布了十月份的机械工具订单的详细数据，年增长为-6%，比九月份的-15%有明显改善。从区域性来看，中国区的订单为213亿日元，同比增加79%；惟欧美需求则仍然疲弱，分别为-29%和-19%；大致上和于其中各国的经济复苏力度相若。

当然，机械工具订单有明显周期性，而相关行业若刚刚复苏，并不一定需要立刻增加产能。但中国区这一轮的工业工具订单十分强劲，相信是因处理疫情的优于其他国家缘故，纵观中国出口数据从六月份开始转正，也见一斑。

从个别日本自动化工具公司业绩公布，也能看到同样描述。第三季中国对日本数控机床系统订单（主要用在电脑或平板产品）需求增长持续，而日本境内需求和出口欧洲的机械工具仍然疲弱。美国区总体需求虽然不振，但对工业机械人的订单开始恢复，其中尤以电动车行业的需求最佳。想从股价高企的科网股换马，有业绩支撑的中美的一些传统工业生产商的股票是不错的选择。

包子敬，鹏盛资产管理研究主管

在新冠疫情中，投资者对互联网医疗行业产生了极大的兴趣。京东健康在中国医药电商行业中占有30%的市场份额（按成交总额计算），是中国最大的线上药房之一，它将成为港交所四季度最大的IPO之一。其竞争对手阿里健康占有大约50%的市场份额，今年已上涨100%。

一般来说，京东健康这样的大型IPO会提升相关公司的景气度。但是阿里健康的股价却在京东健康IPO消息宣布后跌了5%以上，主要是因为市场还无法决定两家公司长期谁会成为行业龙头；并且不久之前蚂蚁集团IPO被取消以及互联网行业的反垄断法的出台，让市场担心阿里系公司面临的监管风险。京东健康2019年的营收比阿里健康要高出28%。 但是阿里健康2017-2019年的营收增速是京东健康的两倍。两家公司同样在发展早期阶段，都是刚能实现收支平衡。

两家公司相比， 阿里健康的优势是，阿里巴巴超过7亿的用户远大于京东的4亿用户群，这能为阿里健康的增长带来支持；京东健康的优势是京东强大的物流配送体系能够提供高效的配送。

对谨慎的投资者来说，京东健康的竞争优势在短期内更吸引人。对愿意冒险的投资者来说，阿里健康的增长潜力长期更加出色。如果你想下注买入未来5年拥有34%复合增长率的中国医药电商行业，你应该同时买入两只！

植克勤
鹏盛资产管理有限公司

声明：鹏盛资产持有阿里健康的股票

上个星期我们看到蚂蚁集团的IPO被突然取消和美国大选的拉锯战。在经历了如此戏剧性的一周之后，由于辉瑞的新冠候选疫苗有效率高达90%的消息以及中国政府出台针对互联网巨头的反垄断法，股市波动率继续维持高位。 疫苗的利好消息导致投资者从科技股和疫情受益股转向传统经济行业和疫情封锁中受到损害的行业。在上周大多数指数在上涨的时候，那些对科技公司进行大量投资的人却感觉像是发生了股市危机！ 其实大部分科技股的基本面都没有发生变化，只是很多投资人对科技股的持仓比例已经过重了。而现在当大家能够看到疫情结束的曙光时，投资者发现自己有了更多选择。

那么，我们是否应该出售科技股并转向银行，石油和旅游业等传统经济行业？ 答案尚不清楚，因为这个决定确实取决于每个投资者的投资周期和能力。包括FAANMG和ATMX在内的全球大型互联网巨头都是行业领导者和赢家，他们的收入增长态势坚若磐石。 另一方面，传统经济股都受到各种各样负面因素的困扰。 他们唯一的吸引力就是估值便宜和投资者在这些股票上的持仓比例低。 如果你是一个看好巨型互联网公司的投资人，即使短期内遭受损失，持仓一年以内也很有可能会赚钱；如果持有这些股票更长时间，你将获得更多！ 另一方面，如果持有传统经济股票，则需要大量宏观环境上的变化以及一点运气才能看到它们持续不断地上升。

投资这两个类型的股票都是可以赚钱的，这取决于你的投资风格。

陈华德，鹏盛资产投资总监

鹏盛资产持有FAAMG和ATMX的投资权益

最近股市发生几件事，就像阿甘正传里的名言：“人生就像一盒巧克力，你永远不知道里面装的是什么。”   

谁能预见蚂蚁金服会在临上市前两天取消？谁又会在事先猜到环球股市会在美国总统大选结果未明之际大涨？作为一个投资者，很多事件在发生之前猜不到，但事后明白为什么很重要。

美股大涨是因为早有预期的事件终于发生，其实谁赢美国总统宝座都是一样，最起码明年一月二十一日有人当选。回首看来，不少资金早就在九月大市调整时就已离场在场边等候，大选过后就重新入市。

这一波疯涨会到什么时候结束？谁知道！我只知道在这一刻，趋势是我的朋友。

重点是由现在到年底，应没有什么大的宏观事件会发生，这阶段主导市场更多是基本因素。

美国互联网、中国互联网和中国消费是最值得关注的板块。

陈华德
鹏盛资产管理投资总监

近期看美股趋势，若看涨，惟靠纾困计划出台。波动多来自疫情状况变化。而短期最重要的日子，则是周二的美国大选。

不论谁最终胜出，尤因在最近股价已经调整后，大市都应反弹，分别只在升幅。民主党若大胜则升多些，因预期纾困计划规模更大，共和党则较少。但无论谁赢，纾困计划都事在必行。

但特朗普如果对选举结果异议而提出诉讼，股市可能有再下跌风险，有卖方策略师甚至觉得大市跌幅可至高双位数，不可不防。新冠肺炎下，很多美国人通过邮寄投票，当中民主党人比共和党人多出近一倍。特隆普早就公开对邮寄选票可能舞弊提出质疑，如他爆冷胜出，当然没事。不然，除非拜登以大比例胜出，否则一向输打赢要的老特，官司打到有大多数保守派法官护航的最高法院为止。

不过香港投资者这回运气不错，蚂蚁金服上市，圈走投资者大量的资金，变相逼迫我们暂时沽货离场。十一月四号资金回笼之日，是亚洲时间美国大选之时。能一边赚蚂蚁金服，一边看清楚再下注，真要谢谢马云老师。

包子敬（鹏盛资产管理研究部主管）

The hoisting of typhoon 8 yesterday afternoon has brought a rare peace and quiet time. While the city's social unrests have hijacked the local media and dominated most discussions, the rare off-day has provided a good opportunity for me to find time to answer a very popular question that I've been regularly asked: will the cut in US rates send HK property prices soaring again? The local real estate market is the most important source of wealth and has enjoyed the best and longest uptrend ever, fuelled partly by ample liquidity and low interest rate.

To answer the question, one must understand why US Fed is cutting rates, and what are the likely consequences.
Is the Fed's rate cut a precautionary measure or is it part of a series of cuts to head off a recession? Fed chairman Powell said it's a mid-term adjustment, in other words, precautionary. This is not what the market had hoped, and worse off, his delivery was uncertain! However, given how strong US economic data has been so far, the chance of this being a precautionary cut is high. In other words, we probably won't a more than expected rate reduction to drive further yield compression.

So, the answer is most likely a no. Property prices here won't rise on this cut, and further cuts will be limited. Note that low interest rate is just part of the formula behind strong property prices. Economic growth and supply are just as important. Since HK prime rate only moved up a quarter percent when US rates moved up a staggering 2.25% since 2016, the reversal in direction is therefore insignificant. However, if the rating agencies decided to downgrade HK sovereign rating on prolonged social unrests, HIBOR will move up, so will mortgage rate, then it would be a big surprise if prices can still hold up! For now, the most important driver for local property market is definitely economic growth. China is softening without much incentive for stimulus, and Hong Kong's GDP growth is being revised downward rather quickly at the moment.

Separately, the impact of interest rate cut to the US stock market is more direct. History shows that if the cut is precautionary, S&P 500 would rise more than 20% a year after the first cut. But if a recession indeed comes, the index would end up falling in a double digit rate for the same period.

Hong Kong is now in typhoon season, maybe we will get more peaceful time to think.

Walter Chang
ROC Investment Management

美國減息香港樓價會否上升？

昨天8號風球換來難得的寧靜。最近差不多所有傳媒和朋友圈都在談論社會紛爭，難得有半日的休閒，終於有時間可以想想我經常被問到的問題：美國聯儲局減息會否帶來香港房地產價格的升浪？這是一個很好的問題，因為絕大多數香港人的財產都是在房地產上。而這個市場因為種種的原因，包括超低利息和資金泛濫，已升了很多年。

在答之前，我想我們要探討一下美國為什麼要減息。究竟是為了防範或是聯儲局己見到衰退的來臨？昨天晚上聯儲局主席鮑威爾說這只是一個中期的調整，即是說是「防範」，但他的言詞中好像不是太確定！事實上從最近美國強勁的經濟數據來看，防範的機會還是高一點，即是說不會減很多。

香港房地產價格是不會因今次減息而上升的。美國從2016年起總共加了2.25%，而香港最優惠利率只是加了0.125%，所以除非聯儲局今後減很多，香港是不會跟隨的。反而，如果社會運動持續一段長時間而令到香港的評級降低，到時HIBOR走高，按揭利率上升，樓價不跌才怪！從現在的情況來看，決定房地產價格最重要的因素是本地和中國經濟狀況，美國減息是没有太大影响力的。

其實美國利息變動最直接影响的是美國的股市。如果減息是為了防範經濟衰退，歷史上標準普爾指數在第一次減息後一年內會上升20%以上。反過來說，如果減息一年之内真的是有經濟衰退，那麽指数會有大幅的調整。

香港現在踏入風暴季節，或許未來會有多一點寧靜時間來思考。

陳華德
鵬盛資產管理投資董事

Emerging markets continue to receive inflows from developed markets since Brexit.  During the last several weeks, central banks in UK, Australia and New Zealand have all embarked in easing programs through bond buying and interest rate cuts.  There are already a handful of countries with sovereign debts that are in negative rates territory, and it looks like more will join this ignominious club.  Asset allocators have little choice but to take on more risks and in their search for more return, emerging markets fit the bill. The political instability of Europe versus that of emerging markets, especially Asia, makes such shift even more credible.  While most of the inflows to emerging markets have been into fixed income, some went into the equity markets as well.

From an equity investor point of view, it is very clear that the rise in index value or share prices have little to do with the improvement in growth of the underlying companies.  The price appreciation has more to do with the acceptance of lower returns and the chase of yield.  Stocks that give predictable and steady dividends with bond like nature have run up the most amidst the current yield compression trend.  Riskier bets go to dividend paying companies that have less predictable business model.  If the trend continues, it is possible that it could extent into the more inferior companies.

Is this the beginning of a bull market in Asia Equity?  No! A bull market is formed by a general pickup in growth of corporate earnings, and it is usually accompanied by a “theme”.  Currently we have neither.  It is however very clear that there is a super bull market for global fixed income.  Equities should continue to do well as long as the bond markets are prosperous, but equities won’t outperform fixed income.  If the fixed income markets start to come off for whatever reasons, absent a pickup in economic growth, equities will surely fall just as much, if not more.  Investors are advised to remember that the root of the current inflow that buoy equity market levels come from the bond market.

We suggest that equity investors should take the following approaches.  They should continue to add yield stocks in their portfolio as they are acting like bonds and their high yields will compress.  They should also increase their exposure to long term winners as these would only get more expensive as winners are hard to come by.  At the margin, they should work harder to look for turnaround stories.  Although without faster growth in the economy, turnarounds are not easy to be found.  A twist to this approach is to look for credible but downtrodden companies that are becoming less bad.  This should work as risk appetite increases.